The price you pay for an Obamacare plan could surge next year

Miami — Josefina Muralles works a part-time overnight shift as a receptionist at a Miami Beach condominium so that during the day she can care for her three kids, her aging mother, and her brother, who is paralyzed.

She helps her mother feed, bathe, and give medicine to her adult brother, Rodrigo Muralles, who has epilepsy and became disabled after contracting COVID-19 in 2020.

“He lives because we feed him and take care of his personal needs,” said Josefina Muralles, 41. “He doesn’t say, ‘I need this or that.’ He has forgotten everything.”

Though her husband works full time, the arrangement means their household income is just above the federal poverty line — too high to qualify for Florida’s Medicaid program but low enough to make Muralles and her husband eligible for subsidized health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace, also known as Obamacare.

Next year, Muralles said, she and her husband may not be able to afford that health insurance coverage, which has paid for her prescription blood thinners, cholesterol medication, and two surgeries, including one to treat a genetic disorder.

Extra subsidies put in place during the pandemic — which reduced the premiums Muralles and her husband paid by more than half, to $30 a month — are in place only through Dec. 31. Without enhanced subsidies, Affordable Care Act insurance premiums would rise by more than 75% on average, with bills for people in some states more than doubling, according to estimates from KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes KFF Health News.

Florida and Texas would be hit especially hard, as they have more people enrolled in the marketplace than other states. Some of their congressional districts alone, especially in South Florida, have more people signed up for Obamacare than entire states.

Like many of the more than 24 million Americans enrolled in the insurance marketplace this year, Muralles was unaware that the enhanced subsidies are slated to expire. She said she cannot afford a premium hike because inflation has already eaten into her household’s budget.

“The rent is going up,” she said. “The water bill is going up.”

Low-income enrollees like the Muralles couple would see the biggest percentage increases in premiums if enhanced subsidies expire.

Middle-income enrollees who earn more than four times the federal poverty line would no longer be eligible for subsidies at all. Those middle-income enrollees (who earn at least $62,600 for a single person in 2025) are disproportionately older, self-employed, and living in rural areas.

Julio Fuentes, president of the Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, said many of his organization’s members are small business owners who rely on Obamacare for health coverage.

“It’s either this or nothing,” he said.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that letting the enhanced subsidies expire would, by 2034, increase the number of people without health insurance by 4.2 million. In tandem with changes to Medicaid in the House of Representatives’ reconciliation bill and the Trump administration’s proposed rules for the marketplace, including toughening income verification and shortening enrollment periods, it would increase the number of uninsured people by 16 million over that time period.

A study by the Urban Institute, a nonprofit think tank, found that Hispanic and Black people would see greater coverage losses than other groups if the extra subsidies lapse.

Fuentes noted that about 5 million Hispanics are enrolled in the ACA marketplace, and that President Trump won the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2024. He hopes the president and congressional Republicans see extending the enhanced subsidies as a way to hold on to those voters.

“This is probably a good way, or a good start, to possibly grow that base even more,” he said.

Enrollment in the marketplace has grown faster since 2020 in the states won by Mr. Trump in 2024. A recent KFF survey found that 45% of Americans who buy their own health insurance identify as or lean Republican, including 3 in 10 who identify as Make America Great Again supporters. Smaller shares identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents (35%) or do not lean toward either party (20%).

Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, said the rules proposed by the Trump administration, combined with the provisions in the House-passed budget bill, would “strengthen the ACA marketplace.” He noted that the CBO projects the legislation would reduce premiums for some plans about 12% on average by 2034 — but out-of-pocket costs would rise or remain the same for most subsidized ACA consumers.

“Democrats know Americans broadly support ending waste, fraud, and abuse, as The One, Big, Beautiful Bill does, which is why they are desperately trying to change the conversation,” Desai said.

But Lauren Aronson, executive director of Keep Americans Covered, a group in Washington, D.C., representing health insurers, hospitals, physicians, and patient advocates, said it is critical to raise awareness about the likely impact of losing the enhanced subsidies, which are also known as advanced premium tax credits. She is encouraged that Democrats have proposed legislation to extend the enhanced tax credits, and that some Republican senators have voiced support.

What worries Aronson most is that the Republican-controlled Congress is more focused on extending tax cuts than enhanced subsidies, she said. The current bill extending the 2017 tax cuts would increase the federal deficit by about $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to the CBO, while making the enhanced subsidies permanent would increase the deficit by $358 billion over roughly the same period.

“Congress is moving forward on a tax reconciliation package that purports to benefit working families,” Aronson said. “But if you don’t take care of the tax credits, working families will be left holding the bag.”

Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute, a conservative health policy think tank, said the enhanced subsidies were supposed to be a temporary measure during the COVID-19 pandemic to help people at risk of losing coverage.

Instead, he said, the enhanced subsidies facilitated fraud because enrollees did not need to verify their income eligibility to receive zero-premium plans if they reported incomes at or near the federal poverty level.

The enhanced subsidies also worsen health inflation, discourage employers from offering health insurance benefits, and crowd out alternative models, such as short-term insurance and Farm Bureau plans, Blase said.

“Permitting these subsidies to expire would just be going back to Obamacare as it was written,” Blase said. “That is a more efficient program than the program that we have now.”

New rules for the marketplace proposed by the Trump administration in March are already designed to address fraud, said Anna Howard, a policy expert with the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, which advocates for increased health insurance coverage. Howard said extending the enhanced tax credits would help ensure that people who are legitimately eligible for coverage can get it.

“We don’t want to see over 5 million people be kicked off their health insurance coverage out of fears of fraud when the policies being proposed don’t necessarily address fraud,” she said.

Without affordable premiums, many consumers will turn to short-term health plans, health care cost-sharing ministries, and other forms of coverage that do not have the benefits or protections of the health law, she said.

“These are plans that don’t provide coverage for prescription drugs, or they have lifetime and annual limits,” she said. “For a cancer patient, those plans don’t work.”

Though the enhanced subsidies do not expire until the end of the year, the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association would prefer Congress to act by fall to avoid confusion during open enrollment, said David Merritt, a senior vice president. Insurers are preparing rates to meet state deadlines. By October, consumers will receive 60-day plan renewal notices with their 2026 premiums.

Without enhanced subsidies, Merritt said, competition in the marketplace will wither, leading to fewer coverage options and higher prices, especially in states that have not expanded Medicaid eligibility and where Obamacare enrollment spiked during the past four years, like Florida and Texas. “Voters and patients are really going to see the impact,” he said.

Republican and Democratic representatives for some of the Florida congressional districts with the highest numbers of people in the marketplace did not respond to repeated interview requests.

Muralles, of North Miami, Florida, said she wants her representatives to work in the interest of constituents like herself, who need health insurance coverage to care for their families.

“Now is the time to prove to us that they are with us,” Muralles said. “When everybody’s healthy, everybody goes to work, everybody can pay taxes, everybody can have a better life.”

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.